certainly DJ is rightful favorite especially with a 2+ shot lead on field but JT showed last year how quickly that can evaporate. Leaning Xander, JT, Webb for tourney but doesn't mean they will also win the Tour Championship.
I think Webb is really interesting considering he's rested and must be surprised that he only dropped 1 shot by taking the week off, especially when the rest of the field had to grind out 72 holes on the most brutal course they've seen in years.
Remember there will be separate bets for this tourney specifically and the Tour Championship finish. You get a bonus for Tour Championship finish and starting spots with bonus prize is below
I think Webb is really interesting considering he's rested and must be surprised that he only dropped 1 shot by taking the week off, especially when the rest of the field had to grind out 72 holes on the most brutal course they've seen in years.
Remember there will be separate bets for this tourney specifically and the Tour Championship finish. You get a bonus for Tour Championship finish and starting spots with bonus prize is below
more on Webb:
both wins this year on fast Bermuda, is #1 on PGA Tour in SG on par 70's (lots of par 4, very few par 5), and dominates the Donald Ross designs (TPC Sawgrass, Sedgewood), #1 this year in scoring average
stats of the week:
Reed = 6 straight tourneys losing both shots off the tee and on approach
Bryson= 5 of last 6 tourneys losing shots to field on approaches
JT = only player in world top 5 in T2G, Par 4 scoring, and Birdie or Better % (webb is 12-3-1 as 2nd best, Berger 10-6-5 in 3rd)
both wins this year on fast Bermuda, is #1 on PGA Tour in SG on par 70's (lots of par 4, very few par 5), and dominates the Donald Ross designs (TPC Sawgrass, Sedgewood), #1 this year in scoring average
stats of the week:
Reed = 6 straight tourneys losing both shots off the tee and on approach
Bryson= 5 of last 6 tourneys losing shots to field on approaches
JT = only player in world top 5 in T2G, Par 4 scoring, and Birdie or Better % (webb is 12-3-1 as 2nd best, Berger 10-6-5 in 3rd)
Webb. For many reasons listed above
JT is always a stat fit and DFS talking heads always drool over him. But personally he just doesn’t pass the form eye test to me past several weeks. A bit like Rory.
short track style par 70 is what course reminds me of. Wyndham and Heritage is how I will comp it strategy wise.
Donald Ross greens and Bermuda. Bombers will have no big advantage imo.
Never felt DJ plays great at these types of courses and even weaker field events. Though my comps may be wrong but it’s how I personally feel the course is set up. He has the advantage, playing sick golf and deserves a FedEx Championship.
Rory is playing way overrated. He does have a fun angle. Played like shit lately, has a baby on the way and may get a call and have to leave. Rory wins 15 million Monday, Has child Tuesday and brings about a feel good story. Seen these rodeos before lol.
Webb- Almost feels destiny like he should win it. The name Webb Simpson just looks to fit in the trophy 2020. Has had a great year and always overlooked with the big names. Toss in a Donald Ross, rested and imo I’m going Heritage Wyndham comps, and he is amazing on those courses. Granted fields are not strong.
Berger- If he wins does he make Masters? If so I’m in. Incredible year, solid all around, great form, no real weakness and a bit of fate may be his performances are worthy of something big.
Todd- Best year he has ever had. Steady Eddie. Drives it straight, casually hits greens and putts well.
Sungjae- Can be a Birdie machine. Has been really good at Wyndham. Always grinds and seems to just do what he does and not worry too much on others. He will birdie hunt any course.
These are a few I looked over and not plays yet. But caught my attention. The gut feel I’d say. Odds will obviously come into play when I check them out. But Webb is a play at anything above 12-1.
JT is always a stat fit and DFS talking heads always drool over him. But personally he just doesn’t pass the form eye test to me past several weeks. A bit like Rory.
short track style par 70 is what course reminds me of. Wyndham and Heritage is how I will comp it strategy wise.
Donald Ross greens and Bermuda. Bombers will have no big advantage imo.
Never felt DJ plays great at these types of courses and even weaker field events. Though my comps may be wrong but it’s how I personally feel the course is set up. He has the advantage, playing sick golf and deserves a FedEx Championship.
Rory is playing way overrated. He does have a fun angle. Played like shit lately, has a baby on the way and may get a call and have to leave. Rory wins 15 million Monday, Has child Tuesday and brings about a feel good story. Seen these rodeos before lol.
Webb- Almost feels destiny like he should win it. The name Webb Simpson just looks to fit in the trophy 2020. Has had a great year and always overlooked with the big names. Toss in a Donald Ross, rested and imo I’m going Heritage Wyndham comps, and he is amazing on those courses. Granted fields are not strong.
Berger- If he wins does he make Masters? If so I’m in. Incredible year, solid all around, great form, no real weakness and a bit of fate may be his performances are worthy of something big.
Todd- Best year he has ever had. Steady Eddie. Drives it straight, casually hits greens and putts well.
Sungjae- Can be a Birdie machine. Has been really good at Wyndham. Always grinds and seems to just do what he does and not worry too much on others. He will birdie hunt any course.
These are a few I looked over and not plays yet. But caught my attention. The gut feel I’d say. Odds will obviously come into play when I check them out. But Webb is a play at anything above 12-1.
I took:
To Win
JT 5/1
Webb 10/1
Xander 25/1
Niemann 150/1
Top 5
*Webb +135
Berger +300
Niemann +1400
Hovland +2000
Champ +5000
Top 10
*Berger -110
*Finau +175
Todd +300
Munoz +500
Matchups
English over Matsuyama +120
*Hatton over Reed +120
Stars are the bigger wagers
This is all handicap included
Lot of those are small wagers. Mainly on Webb, Berger, Finau
Not pressing Berger or Finau to win from that far back
To Win
JT 5/1
Webb 10/1
Xander 25/1
Niemann 150/1
Top 5
*Webb +135
Berger +300
Niemann +1400
Hovland +2000
Champ +5000
Top 10
*Berger -110
*Finau +175
Todd +300
Munoz +500
Matchups
English over Matsuyama +120
*Hatton over Reed +120
Stars are the bigger wagers
This is all handicap included
Lot of those are small wagers. Mainly on Webb, Berger, Finau
Not pressing Berger or Finau to win from that far back
back in 2017 i read an article before East Lake that said to weigh the tour championship with 40% SG
utt, 35% SGT2G, 25% Bogey Avoidance but that was before the tiered scoring.
The stats had the players in following order....Spieth 1, JT 2, Hideki 3, Fowler 4...while JT finished 2nd (but won the FedEx Cup) the others finished 7th>26th>26th so I went and played around with other historical stats on fantasy national and came up with equal weighting on the 3 i mentioned above (t2g, birdie or better, par 4s) ... you can sub out par 4 for "par 70 scoring" because they're basically the same thing and you'll find
JT>Webb>Berger>Bryson>DJ>Rory>Scheffler>Reed>Hatton>Rahm as top 10
I immediately toss out Rory (other things on mind) and Reed (can't hit the ball anymore...6 straight tourney losing shots off tee and on approach is not an anomaly) and very skeptical on Bryson's mentality so if you take them out and extend to 3 more players it would be Finau>Xander>Hideki
so that makes my new top 10
JT #9
Webb #1
Berger #8
DJ #38
Scottie #55
Hatton #20
Rahm #3
Finau #25
Xander #5
Hideki #20
(Bryson #6)
I'll add in bogey avoidance as these guys typically take more chances than normal because moving up 5 or 6 spots can mean an extra $100k bonus. I've put bogey avoidance ranking next to player's name in top 10 and will show Bryson simply because him "taking chances" can mean being 50 yards closer to the hole than a normal player
So every player in my top 11 is also inside top 55 in bogey avoidance and only 2 (DJ, Scheffler) are outside the top 25. I guess, more or less, it reinforces Webb, JT, and Berger for me and still highlights Hatton and Xander as possible outsiders. No surprise Leishman is by far lowest in bogey avoidance in field at #190
Bryson is the wild card in this as he should really be right there JT/Webb/Berger with an overall #4 ranking and #6 bogey avoidance but losing strokes with irons in 5 of 6 tournaments is a tough guy to bet on
utt, 35% SGT2G, 25% Bogey Avoidance but that was before the tiered scoring. The stats had the players in following order....Spieth 1, JT 2, Hideki 3, Fowler 4...while JT finished 2nd (but won the FedEx Cup) the others finished 7th>26th>26th so I went and played around with other historical stats on fantasy national and came up with equal weighting on the 3 i mentioned above (t2g, birdie or better, par 4s) ... you can sub out par 4 for "par 70 scoring" because they're basically the same thing and you'll find
JT>Webb>Berger>Bryson>DJ>Rory>Scheffler>Reed>Hatton>Rahm as top 10
I immediately toss out Rory (other things on mind) and Reed (can't hit the ball anymore...6 straight tourney losing shots off tee and on approach is not an anomaly) and very skeptical on Bryson's mentality so if you take them out and extend to 3 more players it would be Finau>Xander>Hideki
so that makes my new top 10
JT #9
Webb #1
Berger #8
DJ #38
Scottie #55
Hatton #20
Rahm #3
Finau #25
Xander #5
Hideki #20
(Bryson #6)
I'll add in bogey avoidance as these guys typically take more chances than normal because moving up 5 or 6 spots can mean an extra $100k bonus. I've put bogey avoidance ranking next to player's name in top 10 and will show Bryson simply because him "taking chances" can mean being 50 yards closer to the hole than a normal player
So every player in my top 11 is also inside top 55 in bogey avoidance and only 2 (DJ, Scheffler) are outside the top 25. I guess, more or less, it reinforces Webb, JT, and Berger for me and still highlights Hatton and Xander as possible outsiders. No surprise Leishman is by far lowest in bogey avoidance in field at #190
Bryson is the wild card in this as he should really be right there JT/Webb/Berger with an overall #4 ranking and #6 bogey avoidance but losing strokes with irons in 5 of 6 tournaments is a tough guy to bet on
fanduel JUST came into Pittsburgh last week and announced their PGA affiliation on Monday so I will definitely be opening an account since they promise to have the best set of golf betting options in the world. I spend a lot of time capping golf but, to date, for straight betting options.
the new season starts next week so will likely open an account and get it funded early next week
FanDuel Sportsbook becomes PGA TOUR Official Betting Operator
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By joining the TOUR’s Official Betting Operator program, FanDuel will have rights in the United States to use PGA TOUR marks, rights to advertise within TOUR media and TOUR partner platforms, plus content and video rights allowing FanDuel to create pre-game and post-game betting programming, as well as distribution of highlights to users who have placed bets. Additionally, the PGA TOUR and FanDuel will collaborate to deliver odds-based content to fans via TOUR Digital Platforms like PGATOUR.COM and the PGA TOUR app.
“We have long admired FanDuel’s brand, product and marketing strategies as well as the leadership position it has taken since the legalization of sports betting in 2018,” said Norb Gambuzza, SVP, Media and Gaming at the PGA TOUR. “We are excited to bring FanDuel into the PGA TOUR’s Official Betting Operator program as we continue to engage new fans in this rapidly growing space.”
FanDuel Sportsbook has seen substantial growth in golf gaming:
• Golf has recorded the highest single event handle on FanDuel Sportsbook over nine of the last 12 Sundays.
• FanDuel Sportsbook’s total golf handle in New Jersey in 2020 already has surpassed the total golf handle from 2019, even without [13] weeks of PGA TOUR competitions during the shutdown.
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nice little sheet provided by @fantasygolfpod
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYYvaBGoPIJryZPYlZv_EfEC7D9cbEbO5QySvLezpA0/edit#gid=0
I've been bitching about JT's putting for a month but apparently been going on for 3 months. Only Niemann, Munoz, and Leishman have lost more strokes to field putting in L3 months than JT (and he's posted a win and a 2nd place finish)
SGT2G last 3 months JT is #1 (no surprise) followed by Rahm>DJ>Hovland>Xander.
SG:APP last 3 months JT again #1 followed by Hovland>DJ>Morikawa>Berger
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYYvaBGoPIJryZPYlZv_EfEC7D9cbEbO5QySvLezpA0/edit#gid=0
I've been bitching about JT's putting for a month but apparently been going on for 3 months. Only Niemann, Munoz, and Leishman have lost more strokes to field putting in L3 months than JT (and he's posted a win and a 2nd place finish)
SGT2G last 3 months JT is #1 (no surprise) followed by Rahm>DJ>Hovland>Xander.
SG:APP last 3 months JT again #1 followed by Hovland>DJ>Morikawa>Berger
here's my crazy matchup of the week:
Leishman to finish tourney higher than Cam Smith +130
- Leishman hasn't broken 70 in over a month while Smith has posted <=70 in 9 of L11 rounds but Leishman said he found something on Sunday that has been working well in practice rounds this week and he is still a world-class SG:APP guy. As bad as he's played for 3 months he's still up on the field in SG:APP and for the season he is 26th. Before last tourney SG:APP Leishman was 11th and Smith was 123rd as Smith is the Australian version of Mackenzie Hughes, needing putter to bail out his T2G game. While Smith been good putter all year Bermuda is his worst surface and he's lost strokes putting to the field for months...Leishman putts best on Bermuda
biggest thing is that everyone's lumping on Smith at a 1 stroke disadvantage driving price up from +105 to +130. Small bet compared to my others but gives me something to watch before the real players tee off
Leishman to finish tourney higher than Cam Smith +130
- Leishman hasn't broken 70 in over a month while Smith has posted <=70 in 9 of L11 rounds but Leishman said he found something on Sunday that has been working well in practice rounds this week and he is still a world-class SG:APP guy. As bad as he's played for 3 months he's still up on the field in SG:APP and for the season he is 26th. Before last tourney SG:APP Leishman was 11th and Smith was 123rd as Smith is the Australian version of Mackenzie Hughes, needing putter to bail out his T2G game. While Smith been good putter all year Bermuda is his worst surface and he's lost strokes putting to the field for months...Leishman putts best on Bermuda
biggest thing is that everyone's lumping on Smith at a 1 stroke disadvantage driving price up from +105 to +130. Small bet compared to my others but gives me something to watch before the real players tee off
I got him at 10/1 in the "Top Rest of World" prop. He starts 1 shot behind Deki and Im, 1 ahead of Niemann, 2 on Ancer and Leishman, and 3 on Cam Smith
Deki posting scores with smoke and mirrors, Im been a mess for months, Niemann wildly inconsistent, while Leishman and Smith are non-issues. Ancer can go very low so he's the concern for me other than of course Matsuyama who is an elite player when he's on
